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In the high-stakes battle over congressional redistricting, President Donald Trump suffered a stinging setback this week, days after the Supreme Court handed him a major victory.
After months of arm-twisting by the president, top allies and aligned groups, the GOP-dominated Indiana Senate on Thursday voted down a new map championed by Trump that would have created two more right-leaning congressional districts in the solidly red Midwestern state, where Republicans control seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats.
The showdown in Indiana came a week after the Supreme Court cleared the way for Republican-dominated Texas to use its newly redrawn map, which creates five more right-leaning House seats.
Indiana was the latest battleground in Trump’s aggressive national campaign to reshape congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Republicans, as the party in power, will likely face traditional political headwinds as they defend their razor-thin House majority.
STUNNING SETBACK FOR TRUMP IN REDISTRICTING WARS
By championing rare but not unheard-of mid-decade redistricting, Trump is aiming to prevent what happened during his first term in the White House when Democrats reclaimed the House majority in the 2018 midterm elections.
Democrats are pushing back, as they hope to negate the push by the president and his allies.
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Here’s a look at where things stand, and what’s next in the fierce fight over redrawing the maps.
Current balance of power
Republicans currently hold a 220-213 majority in the House, with two Democratic-held seats vacant.
But the number of GOP lawmakers in the chamber will drop to 219 early next month when Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a MAGA firebrand who had a falling out with the president, resigns.
A special election will be held on Jan. 31 to fill the seat left vacant when Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas died last March.
And a special election will be held on April 16 to fill the seat left vacant when Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned last month after being elected New Jersey governor.
As of now, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win back the House majority in next year’s midterms.
Where things stand in redistricting wars
Six states have new congressional maps: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Utah.
The Republican pickup of five seats in Texas is canceled out by the drawing of five more left-leaning seats in Democratic-dominated California.
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The GOP gains two more right-leaning seats in Ohio, and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. But a Utah district judge last month rejected a congressional district map drawn up by the state’s GOP-dominated legislature and instead approved an alternate that will create a Democratic-leaning district ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Do the math, and Republicans theoretically have a three-seat advantage right now in the redistricting wars.
But that’s far from written in stone.
Democratic opponents of redistricting in Missouri submitted thousands of petition signatures calling for a statewide referendum vote on the state’s new maps, which could put the GOP redistricting in jeopardy.
In Utah, Republicans are hoping an appeal will overturn the court-ordered map.
It’s far from certain that Democrats will sweep all five newly drawn left-leaning districts in California and that Republicans will do likewise in Texas. And Democrats in Ohio are confident they can still make a play for the two newly drawn districts that tilt further to the right.
What’s next
Republicans are looking to GOP-controlled Florida, where early redistricting moves are underway in Tallahassee. A new map could possibly produce up to five more right-leaning seats. But conservative Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP legislative leaders don’t see eye-to-eye on how to move forward.
Democrats have their eyes on Virginia, where the Democratic Party holds majorities in both chambers of the legislature. There’s the possibility a new map in the Commonwealth could produce up to four more left-leaning districts.
Other states that might step into the redistricting wars — Democratic-dominated Illinois and Maryland, and two red states with Democratic governors, Kentucky and Kansas.
The wildcard
Hovering over the redistricting wars is the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule in Louisiana v. Callais, a crucial case which may lead to the overturning of a key provision in the Voting Rights Act.
If the ruling goes the way of the conservatives on the high court, it could lead to the redrawing of a slew of majority minority districts across the county, which would greatly favor Republicans.
But very much up in the air — when the court will rule, and what they’ll actually do.
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